Just 60 days ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
